Wave Chasing

I never would have imagined being up over 300 points going into a Fed meeting in the first place, and then being able to bounce back and beyond after the “disappointment” of a 75 basis point cut. Damn.

But, even after today, the S&P is still 15% off it’s 52 week highs – we have a ways to go to get back where we were.

Have a couple short positions that kept the overall port from doing better today, but that’s OK – they didn’t move so much to cause real problems.

Closed:
CLC, +8.07%, held 31 days (hadn’t hit the target, but I wanted to go ahead and take my profits before the Fed meeting)

Opened:
GTrades pick (short)

Month to Date:
My ports: -0.90%
Brokerage: -1.96%
BBE Overall: -2.78%
S&P -0.07%
% of Trading Targets reached: -41.30%
I’m screwed ratio: 49.0 to 5.4
Long to Cash %s: 47.11% to 52.89%

75/75

Markets not particularly happy at the moment – but who really expected a full point?? Not wanted – realistically expected?

Amazingly, by the end of the day, nothing was past it’s stops.  Be interesting to see what tomorrow brings.

Month to Date:
My ports: -2.78%
Brokerage: -5.29%
BBE Overall: -5.47%
S&P -4.04%
% of Trading Targets reached: -118.98%
I’m screwed ratio: 49.0 to 5.1
Long to Cash %s: 59.70% to 40.30%

Last year, January/February timeframe, I remember the talk of the rate cut that would happen in March.  And if not March, definitely May.  This made me smile, not just because of the stock market, but because I was getting ready to put a house on the market, and lower interest rates bring in a few more buyers.

March came and went with nothing.

May came and went with nothing.

August gave us a 50 basis point cut in the Discount Rate, and then finally in September we started seeing cuts in the Fed Funds rate.

Six months of inaction and hyperfocusing on inflation to the exclusion of everything else.

And what do we have to show for it?  A Sunday night emergency rate cut, BSC being sold to JPM for $2/share for the sake of an orderly exit, and a Fed that is now in panic mode.

Maybe the next generation can at least look back at this mess and not make the same mistakes.

Just saw the announcement come across the wires that JP Morgan has agreed to acquire Bear Sterns for $2 a share. BSC closed at $30/share on Friday afternoon.

I really assumed it had to be a typo – $2 a share? That is essentially saying that the company is worthless – so, why even bother?

Obviously we’ll get more details as time goes on, but this seems a little nuts to me.

ETA:  Unscheduled quarter point rate cut – if only to offset the disaster of the BSC sale?

Well, we could have had a decent day with the CPI numbers – right up until Bear Sterns went and pretty much blew everything up. They say that their liquidity position significantly worsened in the past day. My question is – did they really have that many clients bail in a single day, or has this been building for a while and finally came to a head yesterday afternoon when they finally admitted to themselves that they were running out of cash?

Back in June, they controlled some of the first hedge funds that went down in flames – somehow today’s announcement doesn’t exactly shock me.

Maybe next week will be somewhat better.

Month to Date:
My ports: -1.78%
Brokerage: -2.86%
BBE Overall: -3.68%
S&P -3.06%
% of Trading Targets reached: -69.28%
I’m screwed ratio: 49.0 to 5.3
Long to Cash %s: 60.12% to 39.88%

Carlyle Capital takes a big hit on mortgage backed securities gave us all a bit of a headache in the morning, nice recovery as the day moved on, though with S&P stating that the worst is supposedly behind us.  Not really sure if I believe that, but it sounds good.

Opened 2 GTrades picks

Month to Date:
My ports: -1.29%
Brokerage: -1.65%
BBE Overall: -2.65%
S&P -1.53%
% of Trading Targets reached: -45.71%
I’m screwed ratio: 49.0 to 5.5
Long to Cash %s: 60.30% to 39.70%

I attempted to respond to the email you sent me with regards to GorillaTrades & the 3×2, but it was rejected because your mailbox is full – let me know once you have it cleared out and I’ll resend.

Just couldn’t sustain another up day after yesterday’s rocket launch. Understandable.

Month to Date:
My ports: -1.72%
Brokerage: -1.66%
BBE Overall: -2.98%
S&P -1.75%
% of Trading Targets reached: -55.49%
I’m screwed ratio: 49.0 to 5.4
Long to Cash %s: 49.05% to 50.95%

No buys or sells today.  Port would have done better had it not been for the 2 short positions I have…still got some very good recovery overall.  Ah well.  Everything is well away from their various and sundry stop points, and that’s OK for the moment.

Problem right now is that I just don’t trust today’s rally – too much, too soon.  I’ll certainly take it, but I don’t think it’s going to hold up – I’d love for it to be a multi day upward event, but it’s hard to believe it will happen with the way the markets have been behaving of late.

Month to Date:
My ports: -1.82%
Brokerage: -1.29%
BBE Overall: -2.89%
S&P -0.70%
% of Trading Targets reached: -54.26%
I’m screwed ratio: 49.0 to 5.4
Long to Cash %s: 49.02% to 50.98%