Wave Chasing

I have never been so disappointed in my elected government as I am today. Not just because they couldn’t get it together and pass the package, but the pathetic finger pointing and bickering that followed it.

Due to the holidays falling mid-week, we won’t have anything until Thursday afternoon at best.

The question is – will we make it that far?

Closed:
CAH (short) +2.05%, held 8 days

Month to Date:
My ports: -16.61%
Brokerage: -16.27%
BBE Overall: -16.50%
S&P -13.02%
% of Trading Targets reached: -516.37%
I’m screwed ratio: 48.4 to 4.6
Long to Cash %s: 143.00% to -43.00%

So, the package didn’t get through the House.

The Republicans are now saying, “Speaker Pelosi hurt our feelings in her speech, so we voted against it.”

How freakin’ thin-skinned can you be????

I have never been one to vote on party lines. However, after the past 8 years of fuckups in the White House, and now this – it’s going to be very difficult for me to look kindly on the Republican party ever again.

Once again, Washington proves it can’t get a damn thing done. Please remember this come November.

My ports: -11.69%
Brokerage: -8.90%
BBE Overall: -10.80%
S&P -5.62%
% of Trading Targets reached: -337.77%
I’m screwed ratio: 48.4 to 4.6
Long to Cash %s: 132.21% to -32.21%

Which will likely be trashed in the morning with WaMu going under and the work in DC falling apart.

Opened:
GTrades pick w/put, max downside 2.7%

Month to Date:
My ports: -11.43%
Brokerage: -8.03%
BBE Overall: -10.34%
S&P -5.67%
% of Trading Targets reached: -321.87%
I’m screwed ratio: 48.4 to 4.6
Long to Cash %s: 132.10% to -32.10%

Lord, I really am NOT enjoying watching these hearings.

Month to Date:
My ports: -11.28% -10.20%
Brokerage: -9.40% -9.22%
BBE Overall: -10.68% -9.89%
S&P -7.12% -7.42%
% of Trading Targets reached: -333.30% -306.38%
I’m screwed ratio: 48.4 to 4.7
Long to Cash %s: 121.83% to -21.83%

Nothing makes me shudder more at our elected leaders as when they have a televised hearing. The grandstanding and stupid questions are just mind boggling.

Nothing opened/closed.

Month to Date:
My ports: -10.20%
Brokerage: -9.22%
BBE Overall: -9.89%
S&P -7.42%
% of Trading Targets reached: -306.38%
I’m screwed ratio: 48.4 to 4.7
Long to Cash %s: 121.57% to -21.57%

Market still very jittery with the lack of a solid plan as of yet. Be interesting to see what the rest of the week brings!

Opened:
APOL (3×2)
2 GTrades picks, w/puts, max downsides of -1.9% & -1.8%

Month to Date:
My ports: -9.71%
Brokerage: -7.55%
BBE Overall: -9.02%
S&P -5.81%
% of Trading Targets reached: -282.55%
I’m screwed ratio: 48.4 to 4.7
Long to Cash %s: 121.45% to -21.45%

Honestly, I don’t really know WHAT the plan is, but we have one! (I also had no cable for a good chunk of the day, so if the details were given out on CNBC, I missed them.) Having been through the RTC days (and worked at a bank that they took over) – an orderly unwind is desperately needed, and if they can come up with something similar and workable, I think it will be a good thing. And chances are, the government WILL make money on the deal.

And for all that are saying, “this just bails out the rich” or we should just allow a collapse, here’s something to think about: The S&P, Naz100 and Dow 30 are 21.2%, 22.1% and 19.99% off their 52 week highs. This hasn’t exactly snapped the market back to where it was at better times in the year.

Personally, I don’t have a problem with the temporary halt on short selling in financials. There is a BIG difference between using shorts as a hedge in a portfolio, or taking a short position in a company you think is going to have a short term price stumble. However, that is very different from taking huge short positions for no other reason that to attempt to intentionally drive the stock WAY down.

Have a great weekend everyone, and hope you can finally sleep well!!

Closed:
CTSH, +1.63%, held 6 days (3×2)

Month to Date:
My ports: -7.56%
Brokerage: -4.85%
BBE Overall: -6.69%
S&P -3.63%
% of Trading Targets reached: -208.44%
I’m screwed ratio: 48.4 to 4.7
Long to Cash %s: 99.49% to 0.51%

Hard to reconcile the market not liking the AIG bridge loan and then LOVING the no-shorts-in-London rules and the possibility of an RTC solution not 24 hours later. It’s all government intervention on way or another.

Granted, a lot of it was fueled by short covering, but I also don’t have a problem with some of these shorts getting shaken out of the market. I do not have a problem with shorting stocks in general. However, I do think naked shorting is terrible and I do believe that there are those out there that are driving stocks and companies to their death with shorting & rumor-mongering.

The biggest test of today’s rally will be if it holds tomorrow.

While I am not the biggest fan of the government getting in and mucking around with things, I recognize the need for rational and reasonable regulation. The problem is, most regulations seem to only come about in a panic and don’t end up really doing much good. To me, SOX is a good example – while it’s done a great job increasing anti-ulcer medications for accountants, it certainly hasn’t prevented where we are today.

So, I am sure that we’re going to see a bunch of new rules and regs coming out of this – what I HOPE is that they are short-term to give the government the time to rationally and calmly come up with permanent regulations that will actually be effective.

Opened: 3 GTrades picks, 2 long, 1 short, all with protective puts/calls in place. Downside limits ranging from 2.29% to 3.56%

Month to Date:
My ports: -10.65%
Brokerage: -9.32%
BBE Overall: -10.23%
S&P -6.77%
% of Trading Targets reached: -317.22%
I’m screwed ratio: 48.4 to 4.6
Long to Cash %s: 110.80% to -10.80%

Market not pleased with AIG bridge loan it seems.

Month to Date:
My ports: -12.84%
Brokerage: -11.76%
BBE Overall: -12.49%
S&P -9.46%
% of Trading Targets reached: -386.79%
I’m screwed ratio: 48.5 to 4.6
Long to Cash %s: 104.00% to -4.00%