Archive for September, 2008

AIG

Tuesday, September 16th, 2008

Well, either they’re getting a bridge loan from the government, or they’ve hired Weil Gotshal to draw up their bankruptcy papers. Yep, I’ve seen both headlines in the past 2 hours.

The futures say it’s the bridge loan.

I’d really like to see the market have a good, positive response to this tomorrow, especially considering that when they ran the scenarios re: AIG failing, the fallout would have been worse than LEH’s fallout yesterday.

S&P +1.75%, No rate change.

Tuesday, September 16th, 2008

Still no firm news on AIG.

Opened:
Added to CTSH (3×2)

Month to Date:
My ports: -8.59%
Brokerage: -8.57%
BBE Overall: -8.59%
S&P -5.19%
% of Trading Targets reached: -265.28%
I’m screwed ratio: 48.5 to 4.6
Long to Cash %s: 103.81% to -3.81%

FOMC – NO CHANGE, NO CHANGE

Tuesday, September 16th, 2008

Damn.

Unanimous decision to boot.

We really need to some good news on AIG soon.

AIG

Tuesday, September 16th, 2008

CNBC is reporting that a private sector deal for AIG is dead in the water.

I’ll admit, I am surprised – I thought allowing LEH to fail was enough – I did not think that Wall Street would have been willing to let AIG go as well.

There is nebulous talk of the feds doing something, but nothing substantive.

Tomorrow’s Fed meeting…

Monday, September 15th, 2008

Just struck me as interesting that folks were calling for a rate cut tomorrow – wasn’t it not too long ago that we were waiting for them to start raising rates again?

I’m still trying to decide if LEH going under is the bottom or not. I think it is. The bridge for AIG will happen somehow, I’m feeling quite confident of that. (There may be some governmental arm-twisting to get private groups to come in and do something, but I do think it will happen.)

If nothing else, tomorrow should be another interesting day.

S&P -4.71% – Is AIG next??

Monday, September 15th, 2008

Crude was trading around $95 – supposedly due to LEH dumping it’s positions. Not exactly the way I would have wanted to be back under $100 a barrel.

Government is leaning on JPM and GS to provide a bridge loan – I would really hope that Uncle Sam somehow makes it worth their while to make it happen.

Opened:
Added to CTSH (3×2)

Month to Date:
My ports: -9.80%
Brokerage: -6.42%
BBE Overall: -8.72%
S&P -6.76%
% of Trading Targets reached: -267.72%
I’m screwed ratio: 48.5 to 4.7
Long to Cash %s: 101.88% to -1.88%

Could be one hell of an opening.

Sunday, September 14th, 2008

Futures are looking WAY down tonight.

Not looking good for a deal on LEH right now. Unless something happens in the next 10 hours or so, it could be one UGLY open.

BOA/MER deal doesn’t seem to be having any effect whatsoever.

S&P +1.38%

Thursday, September 11th, 2008

God only knows if the financial shitstorm is anywhere near done yet. It would be nice to get LEH settled and put to bed.

Closed:
FWLT, -16.66%, held 7 days (3×2)
RIMM, -8.62%, held 7 days (3×2)
QCOM, -3.25%, held 7 days (3×2)

Month to Date:
My ports: -6.41%
Brokerage: -6.05%
BBE Overall: -6.30%
S&P -2.55%
% of Trading Targets reached: -206.08%
I’m screwed ratio: 48.5 to 4.7
Long to Cash %s: 92.95% to 7.05%

S&P +.61% – Some recovery…

Wednesday, September 10th, 2008

But still lots of doom and gloomers out there…

Month to Date:
My ports: -7.56%
Brokerage: -6.42%
BBE Overall: -7.20%
S&P -3.94%
% of Trading Targets reached: -236.35%
I’m screwed ratio: 48.5 to 4.7
Long to Cash %s: 113.32% to -13.32%

One Step Forward, Two Steps Back

Wednesday, September 10th, 2008

Yeah, apparently I was so despondent after the suck day we had yesterday, I forgot to hit the publish button…

LEH got hammered today – looks like one of their potential investors is walking away. Not pretty and managed to drag down the markets as a whole. Seriously crappy!

The bright spot!
Closed:
RYAAY, +4.7%, held overnight, 3×2