Only just now catching up on the day.
No buys or sells today.
Month to Date:
My ports: -2.40%
Brokerage: -2.64%
BBE Overall: -3.59%
S&P -2.52%
% of Trading Targets reached: -87.69%
I’m screwed ratio: 49.1 to 5.6
Long to Cash %s: 66.90% to 33.10%
Started off a bit ugly but quite a day by the end – however, there was a last minute pullback on more rumors of downgrades on bond insurers. Gotta get that under control.
Glad the month is over – it kinda sucked!
Opened:
GTrades pick
Month to Date:
My ports: -10.58%
Brokerage: -7.08%
BBE Overall: -11.86%
% of Trading Targets reached: -374.38%
I’m screwed ratio: 30.7 to 5.8
Long to Cash %s: 81.57% to 18.43%
It was so nice just to have calm, quiet, UP day. Got more specifics on the stimulus plan, MSFT had a good quarter, things are definitely looking a touch brighter.
Closed:
[a] GLW, +3.2%, held 3 days
Opened:
GTrades pick
Month to Date:
My ports: -11.38%
Brokerage: -8.58%
BBE Overall: -12.37%
% of Trading Targets reached: -269.33%
I’m screwed ratio: 48.9 to 5.8
~~~~~
[a] AAP
Nothing we didn’t already know in the beige book today. Will Bernanke take action? Honestly, just what IS it going to take to get a mid-meeting cut? The economy is in genuine danger of fully going into the tank. Just because a cut might benefit the market, certainly doesn’t mean it shouldn’t be done. Seriously Ben – 50 now, 25 at the meeting.
Closed:
[a] MR, -13.41%, held overnight (stopped out in a big, ugly way and then of course, snapped back. D’OH!)
Opened:
2 GTrades picks
EW pick
Month to Date:
My ports: -9.29%
Brokerage: -6.99%
BBE Overall: -9.93%
% of Trading Targets reached: -221.25%
I’m screwed ratio: 26.9 to 6.0
~~~~
[a] GTrades
OMG, SO boring today. The wavechasing port essentially went sideways and really no excitement whatsoever.
Nothing opened, nothing closed.
Be interesting to see what tomorrow will bring – 0? 25? 50?? Can’t wait for 2:15.
Month to Date:
My ports: 1.72%
Brokerage: 2.33%
BBE Overall: 1.86%
% of Trading Targets reached: 45.99%
I’m screwed ratio: 2.2 to 49.2
Long to Cash %s: 41.81% to 58.19%
After several frustrating days of trying to get to the full weekly Whisper Report on EarningsWhispers.com, I finally got on the phone with them to figure out what on earth was going on.
Well, here’s the scoop. If you click on the “Whisper Report” under the Free Services line on the page, it takes you to a really light summary that basically only lists what issues are in the report itself. If you want the full report (linked on the summary page), that is actually considered a premium service, which is why it kept redirecting me back to the page to register for premium services.
I actually really like the reports, and I’ve had some spectacular trades out of them when I was on the premium trial, so I’ve got no problem with paying for this for the time being – it’s a month to month, so I’m not stuck.
Just wanted to let you know there is now a “worst trade” column in the 3×2 showing the worst return on one of the trades in the past 12 months.
Having a bit of trouble with them.
I signed up for the free two week trial. They have free services and premium/pay services, and I realized I was using the free services, but not the premium, so I cancelled the trial for the premium services.
Now I can’t get to the damn free weekly report. I am logged in. I have cleared cache and cookies. I have logged out and logged back in more times than I can count. Every damn time it tries to make me re-register for the premium services. I have contacted customer support, they told me I just had to be logged in to view it. Responded to that yesterday and let them know I AM logged in and still am being redirected to premium registration. No response today whatsoever. Forwarded them yesterday’s email just now – be interesting to see if I get any response tomorrow or not.
I’m not really thrilled with them right now, but I really did like the weekly report and would like to continue to be able to read it.
Do your own damn backtesting. I’ve been going through the rest of the issues on the Nasdaq 100 to see what else will be triggering on Monday. (A lot.) I understand that the backtesting that was initially done on the system included stocks deleted from the NDX because they were part of it at one point during the backtest period. However – there are stocks coming up on the CURRENT screens that have either been deleted from the NDX and/or were never there as far as I can tell.
Soooooooooooo…… Guess who will be doing her own 3×2 screens from here forward? And guess who has a lot of backtesting to do?
I’ll post the spreadsheet showing what’s going to be triggering Monday morning and the backtest data this weekend sometime. It will only contain current issues within the NDX. I honestly don’t know how some of these made the Stockpickr screen, as they were never in the NDX in the first place.
One of my other weekend projects is doing some re-backtesting of the 3×2 system, partly because I want to test it using my methodology and partly because I don’t think the backtest data that is being used at Stockpickr is quite up to date.
The system is pretty basic – when a Nasdaq 100 stock is down 3 days in a row, you buy at the open. When it then has 2 up days in a row, you then sell at the open the next day. The only difference in how I use it is that I sell at the close of the second up day and have adjusted my backtest to reflect that.
What make me think about the data not being up to date is the last trigger on SOHU (buy at open on Friday, 11/9): “Triggers 3×2 this morning. In the past year it has 44 successes out of 57 occurrences with an average return per trade of 3.13%.”
According to my backtesting, in the past 12 months it has only triggered 26 times. 19 successes (73.08%), with an average successful return of 4.35% and an overall return for all trades of 2.15%.
So, I’ll be sticking with my backtesting on the 3×2’s to evaluate success rates and returns rather than what is on Stockpickr, because it’s just not up to date. I’ve not backtested all 100 stocks, but I have done it on the ones that I’ve traded previously, and as new issues trigger, I’ll add those to the backtesting.
Here’s the rundown for Monday’s triggered issues:
SOHU, see above
RYAAY: 23/28 successful trades, successful returns 4.02%, all returns 2.89%
AMKR: 23/27 successful trades, successful returns 5.68%, all returns 2.77%
ERTS: 24/35 successful trades, successful returns 3.62%, all returns 1.93%
ITWO: 19/28 successful trades, successful returns 4.28%, all returns 1.84%
BRCD: 22/33 successful trades, successful returns 4.62%, all returns 1.64%
GENZ: 26/36 successful trades, successful returns 2.58%, all returns 1.35%
INTU: 19/27 successful trades, successful returns 3.35%, all returns 1.31%
QQQQ: 9/13 successful trades, successful returns 1.47%, all returns .76%
TASR: 23/40 successful trades, successful returns 4.31%, all returns 0.62%
PCAR: 12/15 successful trades, successful returns 2.38%, all returns 0.37%
ASML: 12/23 successful trades, successful returns 2.28%, all returns 0.11%
CMCSK: 19/32 successful trades, successful returns 1.27%, all returns -0.15%
PETM: 18/30 successful trades, successful returns 2.63%, all returns -0.19%
AKAM: 14/27 successful trades, successful returns 2.97%, all returns -1.46%
CYBX: 19/55 successful trades, successful returns 5.34%, all returns -3.22%
