Wave Chasing

as I’ve gotten a 2 day pass to the beach.

What good does wavechasing do you if you don’t catch one every now and again?

Family crisis.

So, I’m above my QTD targets and technically don’t “need” to open any new positions.

But, there’s a dividend play out there.

To go long or not to go long – that is the question…

I’ve got what could be two great dividend plays that I could open today – perfect except for tomorrow’s fed meeting…

Decisions, decisions.

143 point selloff in the Dow today. A should-have-been-expected takeback over the “overbought” conditions of the previous few days. Question is – was it enough to put us into some semblance of equilibrium or do we have more selling tomorrow?

Nikkei is down 1% at the open. It doesn’t feel like we ever have just one down day.

So, I’m ready for more selling tomorrow. Won’t be upset if I’m wrong, but it’s better to be mentally ready for everything to go to shit.

Never thought I’d see the day where I hear the words, “Next time, just call us directly at the derivatives desk.”

You can’t exercise an option online at E*Trade – mildly annoying, but at least they don’t hit you with the brokerage fee for calling in like they would otherwise.  However, if you’re exercising an option on an ex-div date, it goes to the derivatives desk, not customer service…

My 1/100 puts are now 1/103’s, so I picked up the extra shares on the cheap this morning so that I could do a full exercise.

Looking at a 1.5% return on an overnight when all is said and done.  Worth the complexity.

I am also waiting on a return email from QCharts to find out WTF is going on w/their option quotes – they don’t appear to be real time when compared to E*Trades quotes, which are real time.  I am supposedly on the OPRA real time quotes, but I’m not so sure…

Asia is all green. So, given how great I’ve been lately with predictions, I’m betting on another 200 down day. ;)

So, the Nikkei is still holding at down 2.5% at this point*, which I guess is better than being down by 3%, right?

I’m prepped for another down day tomorrow – if the EIA or mortgage survey numbers give anyone even the slightest cause for pause, we’re gonna see more selling – we tend to not get it out of our system in a day of late, and the light volume just makes things move more than they should.

Damn, I want to be wrong, and I would LOVE to be wrong, but I’m ready for more red.

Couple potential 3×2 trades tomorrow if I roll out of anything else and the markets aren’t absolutely ridiculous. PRM is also going ex-div on a special tomorrow as well and I’ve got my eye on that as well.

I’ve only got one holding that is really giving me some grief, and that is VFC. It goes down on any and all news, and doesn’t seem to be able to fight the tape at all. I’m still thinking back to school will be good for them – lord knows I buy a ton of their products between the North Face & Lucy brands. I’m not ready to dump it yet – I think once things turn a little overall and back to school numbers start coming in, I think there will be some strength in it again.

Guess we’ll see, won’t we?

*Well, as of 10:30 – Yahoo’s feed of it isn’t updating anymore for some reason.

The Nikkei gapped up 2.5% and holding, overnight futures are way up as well.

Obviously the real question is whether or not this can hold through the open tomorrow.  Sure would be nice if it did – I’d love to see an up day with some real authority to it.

Have to just share on this one, cause it’s been working pretty darn well. Since I’ve gotten back from the beach, I’ve done 16 of these dividend trades and at the moment, I am pulling a 28% annualized return on them.

Very happy with this.

If the 3 plays I opened today work out, it will bring it to 43%.   I’m only looking to pull 1% out of the trade + the dividend since it is only an overnight trade.  Quick example (no comissions):

$10 stock, .30 dividend.  Buy at 1000 shares @ $10 the day before it goes ex-dividend.  Sell the day it goes ex-div @ 9.80.  $300 dividend + -200 on the trade, net $100 for a 1% net.

Working well so far.